Despite recent spikes Covid deaths unlikely to rise

The latest NHS Test and Trace data suggests that recent spikes of coronavirus cases in local areas are unlikely to lead to increased deaths.

At the height of the pandemic large numbers of older people were testing positive for the virus. Charts currently show the age range of those testing positive in hotspots such as Oldham, Leicester, Blackburn with Darwen, and Bradford, have the data noting that the vast majority of those now affected are under 65. 

Recent evidence suggests that the risk of death for under 65’s is around 1 in 3,300. For under 45’s it is around 1 in 21,000 and under 34’s the ratio is 1 in 66,653.

However above age 65 those numbers differ significantly changing to 1 in 859 for the age range 65 to 74. For the over 75’s it is 1 in 179 and for those over 90 it is one death in 52 cases. There is also evidence that the death rate from Covid-19 has been falling since March from six per cent of those infected to around 1 per cent.

According to admissions data compiled by the NHS the upturn in cases is not causing a corresponding rise in hospitalisations. Even in the North West where cases are seemingly high there has been no increase in hospital admissions. Figures for August 9th show that there were zero admissions of anyone under 65 in the North West, and just four admissions for people over 65 with the virus. In England on the same date, only five people under 65 were admitted with coronavirus, and six people aged 65 and over. The seven-day rolling average for England by was 19 admissions per day.

There are also fewer people currently in hospital with Covid-19 than when the NHS began keeping records on March 20. At present, August 2020, there are 599 beds occupied with Covid patients compared with a figure of nearly 19,000 at the peak of the epidemic.

The Government recently announced that, although none of the current areas under local lockdown have had that status removed, no new areas are being added. The “R” reproduction number was also unchanged at between 0.8 and 1 for both Britain and England.

The Office for National Statistics’ latest surveillance data also shows that cases are plateauing. There are believed to be 28,300 indiviiduals currently believed to be infected in total in England and Wales.


Davies McGrath Law
Tel; 01704 829681

By |2020-08-31T09:20:32+00:00August 31st, 2020|Uncategorized|